Gold—Smart Investment or Shiny Distraction? (Part 1)

Gold: Is It Time to Pay Attention?

Gold has been on a blistering rally over the past two years—nearly doubling in price from early 2024 to mid-October 2025. If you’re wondering whether there’s a place for gold in your portfolio, you’re definitely not alone.

Until about two years ago, we didn’t give gold much thought either. Our focus was firmly on modern investments—emerging technologies and innovation shaping the future economy. But recent market shifts have made us pause and rethink that strategy.

Today, we’ll share what changed our perspective—and why gold might deserve a second look.

CNBC: Gold / US Dollar Spot

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So, Why Has Gold Been Rallying?

Part one of this series will discuss several key drivers behind gold’s recent surge.

2025, for better or worse, has been a transformational year. The U.S. administration has reshaped the global landscape of trade, security and geopolitics all in the backdrop of rising US debt—sending ripple effects through markets worldwide.

Trade. As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. has imposed sweeping tariffs on more than 200 countries. These measures are expected to slow consumption—the main engine of the U.S. economy—and push inflation higher. A weaker economic outlook in the U.S. often spills over to the rest of the world, and this time is no exception. Combine that with inflation eroding the purchasing power of currencies, and it’s easy to see why investors are turning to gold as a safe haven.

Next, Security.

While conflicts around the world are nothing new, two stand out today. The Russia–Ukraine war has now dragged on for more than three years. Despite efforts by the U.S., the U.N., and the E.U. to bring about resolution, little meaningful progress has been made. The war continues to weigh on the European economy, disrupt energy supply lines, and contribute to rising U.S. deficits.

Then there’s the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas—just as devastating and consequential. The Gaza Strip has been left in ruins, much of its population displaced, and regional tensions have only deepened in an area already known for volatility.

Together, these conflicts add layers of uncertainty to global markets. From disrupted trade routes to energy instability, the ripple effects are being felt across economies and asset classes worldwide.

And Then There’s Geopolitics.

BRICS—originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, and China—has expanded its ranks to include South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Together, this group of emerging economies is seeking greater influence on the global stage, positioning itself as a counterweight to the G7 coalition of Western nations and their policies.

One major outcome of this shift, intensified by recent U.S. trade policies, has been the growing move by foreign central banks—particularly China—to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency. And what are they turning to instead? Gold.

Many countries that aren’t closely aligned with the U.S. are increasingly wary of holding assets in U.S. dollars — the world’s dominant reserve currency — out of concern they could be frozen by Washington as leverage to influence domestic or foreign policy. A recent example tied to global security is the U.S. freezing of Russian assets following its invasion of Ukraine.

Finally, There’s U.S. Debt.

The U.S. debt pile has been steadily growing—and many experts now consider it approaching unsustainable levels. Debt as a percentage of the economy is projected to surpass even the highs seen during World War II. And the outlook isn’t improving anytime soon. Key drivers—Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, interest payments, and national defense—are all expected to rise over the next decade.

All of this is happening while the government grapples with a fragile economy and lower tax revenues. A larger debt burden makes the U.S. economy—and by extension, its currency—more vulnerable to shocks, increasing risk for the dollar and the traditional safety of U.S. Treasuries. In this environment, gold increasingly stands out as an attractive safe-haven alternative.

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So, Does This Make Gold a Smart Investment?

Join us for Part 2 of our series, where we take a closer look.